Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Farmer walked, Polanco scored, Correa to second, Stevenson to third.6–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 46–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 35–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 8Correa scored on error, Wallner safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Vaughn.5–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 8Farmer grounded out to third, Kepler scored, Correa to second.4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Correa reached on infield single to second, Lewis scored, Kepler to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 8Polanco scored on Santos wild pitch, Kepler to second on wild pitch by Santos, Lewis to third on wild pitch by Santos.2–7
- 8Polanco scored on Santos wild pitch, Kepler to second on wild pitch by Santos, Lewis to third on wild pitch by Santos.2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 7Benintendi singled to center, Anderson scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 7Anderson doubled to left, Andrus scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 1Sheets homered to right (359 feet), Moncada scored and Vaughn scored.1–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Jiménez homered to left center (411 feet), Anderson scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Fair odds
- MIN -113
- CHW +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +76 Elo | MIN 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 17th of 3035–38 | Road vs home | 29–4428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 8–3 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.