Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dallas KeuchelPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena homered to left center (448 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Kepler tripled to right, Julien scored and Polanco scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 3Farmer homered to left (385 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Wallner homered to center (428 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Mead doubled to center, Paredes scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Díaz doubled to left, Bruján scored and Bethancourt scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Basabe grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Mead scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -101
- TB +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −4 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Dallas Keuchel: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +1 Elo | TB 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 6th of 3039–32 | Road vs home | 43–318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 4–1 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.