Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting4-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lewis homered to left center (419 feet), Julien scored and Kirilloff scored.7–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 6Bruján bunted into fielder's choice to first, B. Lowe scored, Arozarena out at second.7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Díaz homered to right center (391 feet).6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Walls homered to right center (393 feet), J. Lowe scored and Siri scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Kepler homered to right center (425 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Siri singled to left, Arozarena scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1J. Lowe singled to center, Díaz scored, Arozarena to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -101
- MIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +5 | TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +30 Elo | TB 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 6th of 3038–31 | Road vs home | 42–308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–0 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.