Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes homered to left (369 feet).4–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 24–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 7H. Ramírez homered to left (376 feet), B. Lowe scored.4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pinto homered to left (380 feet), Siri scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Raleigh homered to center (418 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Rodríguez homered to left (379 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Moore doubled to left, Canzone scored, Ford to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Suárez homered to center (424 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1J. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, H. Ramírez scored, Arozarena to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Paredes singled to center, Díaz scored, Arozarena to second, H. Ramírez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Fair odds
- TB -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −26 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 1.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3040–32 | Road vs home | 47–252nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 3–1 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.