Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Connor PhillipsPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Encarnacion-Strand singled to right, De La Cruz scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8Martini homered to right center (368 feet), Marte scored and Stephenson scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Rodríguez homered to right (336 feet).6–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Marte homered to left (366 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 6Encarnacion-Strand homered to left (406 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Rodríguez homered to right center (397 feet), Rojas scored and Crawford scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Fraley doubled to right, Maile scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Hernández homered to center (411 feet), Raleigh scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Fair odds
- CIN -103
- SEA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Connor Phillips (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 3038–31 | Road vs home | 34–3621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.