Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mike FordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael MariotPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford singled to left, France scored, Raleigh to second.3–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Stephenson doubled to left, Renfroe scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Ford homered to right center (388 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Rodríguez homered to right center (411 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Steer homered to center (408 feet), Marte scored and Friedl scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Renfroe singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Martini to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1De La Cruz singled to right, Friedl scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 46%
- Fair odds
- CIN -101
- SEA +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.8 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Tejay Antone (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +29 Elo | SEA 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3038–30 | Road vs home | 33–3622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.