Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lyon RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benson homered to left center (395 feet).8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7France singled to center, Raleigh scored, Canzone to third.8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 6Encarnacion-Strand singled to left, De La Cruz scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 5Friedl hit sacrifice fly to left, Benson scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Raleigh homered to right center (365 feet).7–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Crawford homered to right (382 feet), France scored and Rojas scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4France doubled to left, Suárez scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Ford homered to right (400 feet), France scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Steer singled to left, Friedl scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 46%
- Fair odds
- CIN -103
- SEA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.0 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Lyon Richardson: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +28 Elo | SEA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3038–32 | Road vs home | 35–3621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.