Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Sam HaggertyBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Rays- Josh LoweBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bethancourt singled to left, Basabe scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 5Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Haggerty singled to center, Ford scored, Rojas to second.2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Rojas singled to right, Hernández scored, Ford to second.1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Raley doubled to right, J. Lowe scored and Siri scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1J. Lowe doubled to right, H. Ramírez scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1H. Ramírez doubled to right, B. Lowe scored and Díaz scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -118
- SEA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +4 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +45 Elo | TB 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3040–34 | Road vs home | 49–251st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 3–3 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.