Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz homered to right (364 feet), Walls scored.5–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8Suárez scored on Stephenson wild pitch, Haggerty to second on wild pitch by Stephenson.5–5
- 8Suárez scored on Stephenson wild pitch, Haggerty to second on wild pitch by Stephenson.5–5
- 7Díaz doubled to left, Walls scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Walls singled to center, Aranda scored, Walls to second.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5B. Lowe doubled to right, Walls scored and Aranda scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Rodríguez homered to left (373 feet).4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Paredes doubled to left, Arozarena scored on fielding error by left fielder Canzone.3–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1France singled to center, Hernández scored and Rodríguez scored, Canzone to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Canzone walked, Crawford scored, Hernández to second, Rodríguez to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -116
- SEA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +1 | SEA: Trent Thornton (no track record yet) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +41 Elo | TB 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 3040–33 | Road vs home | 48–252nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 3–2 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.