Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Edward OlivaresBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olivares singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Melendez to third.2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Andrus singled to center, Vaughn scored, Andrus to second.1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Olivares doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Andrus grounded into fielder's choice to second, Moncada scored, Sheets out at second.0–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Sheets singled to center, Jiménez scored and Robert Jr. scored, Moncada to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Moncada singled to right, Benintendi scored, Jiménez to second, Robert Jr. to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Jiménez reached on infield single to third, Anderson scored, Robert Jr. to second, Benintendi to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 55%
- Fair odds
- CHW -121
- KC +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 5.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +36 Elo | CHW 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–54 | Road vs home | 28–4027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 5–5 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.