Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Yoan MoncadaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-3
- Reese OlsonPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moncada singled to right, Benintendi scored, Jiménez to third.6–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 8Jiménez singled to right, Anderson scored, Benintendi to third.5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 8Benintendi doubled to center, Grandal scored and Colás scored, Anderson to third.4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 7Moncada homered to left center (374 feet), Robert Jr. scored.2–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 10–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Fair odds
- DET -121
- CHW +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.7 – 5.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +9 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +44 Elo | DET 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–46 | Road vs home | 29–4026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 4–6 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.