Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Robert Jr. singled to left, Grandal scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 7Vierling homered to left center (384 feet).0–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 6Short walked, Vierling scored, Rogers to second, Nevin to third.0–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 40–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2McKinstry reached on infield single to second, Rogers scored, Short to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Fair odds
- DET -122
- CHW +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.7 – 5.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +9 | CHW: Jose Urena: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +60 Elo | DET 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 27th of 3027–46 | Road vs home | 29–4127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 5–6 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.