Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers singled to center, Correa scored and Castro scored.10–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 9Castro reached on infield single to third, Kepler scored, Correa to third.8–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 9Correa doubled to left, Kirilloff scored, Kepler to third.7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 5Andrus homered to left center (419 feet), Sheets scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 36–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Kepler singled to center, Lewis scored, Kirilloff to third.6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Wallner singled to left, Correa scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Lewis homered to left (397 feet), Wallner scored, Jeffers scored and Julien scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- CHW +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −14 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +71 Elo | MIN 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 17th of 3034–38 | Road vs home | 29–4328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 7–3 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.