Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirilloff singled to center, Kepler scored and Polanco scored, Kirilloff to second, Lewis to third.10–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 9Lewis walked, Vázquez scored, Kepler to second, Polanco to third.8–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 48–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 37–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 9Polanco reached on infield single to shortstop, Farmer scored, Vázquez to second.7–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Vaughn homered to left (356 feet), Moncada scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 7Farmer homered to left (381 feet), Wallner scored.6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Wallner singled to right, Kirilloff scored and Castro scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Lewis homered to left center (426 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Julien homered to right center (381 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −4 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Jose Urena: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +55 Elo | MIN 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 19th of 3033–38 | Road vs home | 29–4228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 6–3 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.