Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis PatinoPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robert Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Benintendi scored, Anderson out at second.11–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–9
- 9Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Blanco scored.11–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–9
- 7Garcia singled to left, Porter scored, Blanco to second.10–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 39–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 29–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–9
- 6Sosa hit sacrifice fly to left, Sheets scored.9–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–8
- 6Sheets doubled to center, Pérez scored on error, Robert Jr. scored and Jiménez scored, Sheets safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Isbel.9–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging9–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 39–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 29–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 6Robert Jr. singled to left, Vaughn scored.9–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Vaughn doubled to left, Moncada scored.9–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 6Moncada singled to center, Remillard scored.9–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–2
- 6Remillard doubled to left, Sosa scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 29–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 19–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–1
- 5Jiménez homered to left center (397 feet).9–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 59%
- Fair odds
- CHW -125
- KC +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +5 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +66 Elo | CHW 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–55 | Road vs home | 29–4027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 5–6 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.