Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Yasmani GrandalBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perez grounded out to second, Loftin scored, Witt Jr. to second.7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 9Loftin doubled to left, Isbel scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Grandal grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Moncada scored on error, Vaughn safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr., Vaughn safe at third on error.5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Perez singled to center, Loftin scored, Garcia to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 7Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Isbel scored, Loftin to third.4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 7Loftin singled to left, Waters scored, Isbel to second.3–0
- 7Pitch 10 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 32–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Massey homered to right center (371 feet), Olivares scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 58%
- Fair odds
- CHW -122
- KC +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 5.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +19 | KC: Steven Cruz (no track record yet) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +54 Elo | CHW 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 30th of 3019–55 | Road vs home | 29–4127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 6–6 CHW in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.