Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Brewers- Mark CanhaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canha homered to left (411 feet), Taylor scored, Frelick scored and Santana scored.5–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Alu singled to left, Chavis scored, L. García to second.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6L. García walked, Meneses scored, Kieboom to second, Smith to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 44–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 13–5
- 6Kieboom reached on infield single to second, Ruiz scored, Smith to second, Meneses to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Meneses singled to right, Abrams scored, Ruiz to third.2–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Donaldson singled to center, Adames scored, Tellez to second.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 4Taylor homered to left (378 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3L. García homered to right center (408 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Tellez singled to center, Santana scored, Canha to second.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Fair odds
- MIL -133
- WSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | 0 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +92 Elo | MIL 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 19th of 3034–40 | Road vs home | 44–294th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.