Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Josh DonaldsonBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras hit sacrifice fly to right, Monasterio scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Donaldson homered to left (426 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Monasterio walked, Canha scored, Donaldson to second, Adames to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 41–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Arraez homered to right (391 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | MIA: JT Chargois: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +45 Elo | MIL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.26th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 3034–38 | Road vs home | 41–286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.