Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stallings homered to left center (370 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Sánchez homered to right center (414 feet), De La Cruz scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Harper singled to center, Turner scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Turner homered to left (365 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -118
- MIA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.8 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +40 Elo | PHI 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 41–265th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 5–5 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.