Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Garrett HampsonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Enmanuel De JesusPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Marsh doubled to right, Stott scored, Turner scored and Harper scored.4–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Burger hit sacrifice fly to left, Arraez scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 5Bell doubled to center, Stallings scored, Arraez to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Stallings doubled to left, Edwards scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Hampson homered to left (365 feet).1–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Schwarber homered to center (425 feet), Castellanos scored and Cave scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Castellanos doubled to left, Marsh scored and Realmuto scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -118
- MIA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −6 | MIA: Johnny Cueto: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +56 Elo | PHI 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3033–36 | Road vs home | 41–275th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 6–5 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.