Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting1-3
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wiemer doubled to center, Taylor scored.0–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–12
- 6Wiemer safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Wendle, Donaldson scored, Taylor safe at third.0–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–11
- 6Monasterio singled to right, Adames scored, Donaldson to second.0–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–10
- 6Adames tripled to left, Canha scored, Contreras scored and Santana scored.0–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 5Frelick singled to right, Taylor scored, Frelick to second.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Taylor doubled to left, Adames scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Taylor singled to center, Adames scored, Monasterio to second, Donaldson to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Donaldson singled to center, Santana scored, Adames to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Adames doubled to left, Contreras scored, Santana to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Canha homered to left (374 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +7 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +55 Elo | MIL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 17th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 40–287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.