Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castellanos doubled to left, Stott scored, Pache to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8De La Cruz homered to center (421 feet), Edwards scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Fortes singled to left, Gurriel scored, Berti to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Gurriel doubled to left, De La Cruz scored and Myers scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (416 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Turner homered to center (422 feet), Schwarber scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Fair odds
- PHI -120
- MIA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | MIA: Steven Okert: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +65 Elo | PHI 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 17th of 3033–37 | Road vs home | 42–275th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 6–6 PHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.