Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-4
- Eury PerezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Tyrone TaylorBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Taylor doubled to left, Turang scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 32–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Frelick singled to right, Taylor scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Taylor doubled to left, Monasterio scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Stallings singled to left, Edwards scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Tellez hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Arraez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -118
- MIA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.9 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −4 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +39 Elo | MIL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3035–39 | Road vs home | 42–296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.