Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Garrett HampsonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4
- Colin ReaPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hampson doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Edwards singled to left, Sánchez scored, Edwards out stretching at second.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Fair odds
- MIL -120
- MIA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −11 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Trevor Megill (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +48 Elo | MIL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 3034–39 | Road vs home | 42–285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.