Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santana homered to right (404 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Santana homered to right center (385 feet).3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Contreras homered to left center (456 feet), Tellez scored and Yelich scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Vargas doubled to center, Kieboom scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Kieboom doubled to right, Meneses scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Thomas homered to left (403 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Fair odds
- MIL -132
- WSH +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +7 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +91 Elo | MIL 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3034–39 | Road vs home | 43–295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.