Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joan AdonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to right center (419 feet).6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Benintendi singled to right, Andrus scored, Anderson to third.6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 6Andrus singled to center, Vaughn scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Vaughn singled to right, Moncada scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Robert Jr. homered to left center (398 feet), Anderson scored and Benintendi scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Fair odds
- WSH -121
- CHW +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.9 – 5.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +12 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Joan Adon: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +39 Elo | WSH 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 3027–48 | Road vs home | 30–4327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.