Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Polanco homered to center (396 feet).4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Julien homered to left center (410 feet), Jeffers scored and Farmer scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- CHW +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.9 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +62 Elo | MIN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–624th of 30 |
| 17th of 3035–39 | Road vs home | 30–4428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 8–4 CHW in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.