Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jackson RutledgePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moncada singled to center, Robert Jr. scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Meneses homered to left center (382 feet), Vargas scored and Kieboom scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Moncada homered to right center (412 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Thomas hit sacrifice fly to left, Young scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Robert Jr. homered to left (386 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Fair odds
- WSH -121
- CHW +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.8 – 5.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | 0 | CHW: Jose Urena: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: Jackson Rutledge: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +48 Elo | WSH 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–48 | Road vs home | 30–4427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.