Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Trayce ThompsonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting3-4
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yoshida singled to right, Devers scored, Verdugo to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Duvall hit sacrifice fly to right, Rafaela scored, Devers to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Thompson doubled to center, Jiménez scored, Vaughn to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Vaughn reached on infield single to shortstop, Robert Jr. scored, Jiménez to second.1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Rafaela hit sacrifice fly to right, Story scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- CHW +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.0 – 5.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −12 | CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +68 Elo | BOS 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–50 | Road vs home | 38–3819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 2–1 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.