Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duvall hit sacrifice fly to right, Devers scored, Refsnyder to second.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Refsnyder singled to center, Urías scored and Wong scored, Devers to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Semien singled to center, Carter scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Urías singled to center, Dalbec scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Semien homered to left (383 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -120
- BOS +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.1 – 5.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +55 Elo | TEX 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 16th of 3036–38 | Road vs home | 45–304th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.