Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran doubled to left, Carter scored.2–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 32–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 4Giménez doubled to left, Kwan scored and J. Naylor scored, Laureano to third.1–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 4Ramírez grounded out to pitcher, Arias scored, Kwan to second.1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Kwan singled to center, Brennan scored, Arias to third.1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Arias singled to center, Freeman scored and Giménez scored, Brennan to second.1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Freeman singled to center, Laureano scored, Giménez to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Giménez singled to left, J. Naylor scored, Laureano to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Ramírez homered to left (431 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2J. Smith doubled to right, Taveras scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Fair odds
- CLE -102
- TEX +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +6 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +2 Elo | CLE 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3037–36 | Road vs home | 38–3616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–2 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.