Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Sam HuffBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hedges singled to left, Garver scored and Ornelas scored, Grossman to second.3–12
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–12
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–12
- 9Huff homered to center (429 feet).1–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–12
- 7Calhoun homered to right center (408 feet), Fry scored.0–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–12
- 7J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored.0–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–10
- 6Brennan doubled to left, Giménez scored and Laureano scored.0–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 6Giménez singled to right, J. Naylor scored, Laureano to third.0–7
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 6J. Naylor doubled to left, Ramírez scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 6Ramírez doubled to center, Bo Naylor scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Fair odds
- TEX -105
- CLE +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −31 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Lucas Giolito: team allows 1.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +64 Elo | TEX 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 10th of 3037–34 | Road vs home | 36–3619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–0 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.