Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kwan singled to left, Bo Naylor scored, Freeman to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 8Freeman singled to left, Laureano scored, Bo Naylor to second.1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Semien doubled to left, Carter scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Fair odds
- CLE -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +20 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +13 Elo | CLE 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3037–35 | Road vs home | 37–3617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.