Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rafaela singled to center, Yoshida scored, Dalbec to third.5–15
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–15
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–15
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–15
- 6Carter homered to right (387 feet), Taveras scored.4–15
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–15
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–13
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–13
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–13
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–13
- 5Jung homered to center (408 feet), Seager scored.4–13
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–13
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–11
- 5Seager doubled to left, Semien scored.4–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–11
- 4Taveras hit sacrifice fly to center, Jung scored, Garver to second, García to third.4–10
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–10
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 4García doubled to center, Lowe scored, Jung to third.4–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 3Semien walked, Garver scored, Carter to second, Taveras to third.4–8
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 44–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 34–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 3Taveras singled to left, Heim scored, Garver to second.4–7
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 14–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 2Semien singled to center, Taveras scored and Carter scored.4–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.1 – 5.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −3 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +23 Elo | TEX 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 17th of 3037–39 | Road vs home | 46–316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.