Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Heim walked, Seager scored, Grossman to second, Jung to third.4–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 44–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Jung singled to center, Semien scored, Jung to second, Seager to third.4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Verdugo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Dalbec scored on error, Verdugo second, Urías safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Seager.4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Taveras singled to center, Heim scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Heim doubled to right, García scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Semien singled to left, Taveras scored, Carter to second.3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Yoshida singled to center, Urías scored and Devers scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Turner grounded out to third, Dalbec scored, Devers to second, Urías to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2García homered to right center (400 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.1 – 5.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +47 Elo | TEX 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 14th of 3037–38 | Road vs home | 45–316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.