Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting3-4
- Nick PivettaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robert Jr. homered to right (311 feet).1–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Fair odds
- BOS -132
- CHW +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.8 – 5.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +10 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +85 Elo | BOS 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–51 | Road vs home | 39–3819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.