Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pereira singled to center, Volpe scored, Peraza to second.4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 8Florial hit sacrifice fly to left, Wells scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Peraza walked, Torres scored, Volpe to second, Wells to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 44–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Carroll singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored, Marte to second, Rivera to third.4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Peraza homered to left center (443 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Moreno singled to center, Carroll scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Wells homered to center (408 feet), Torres scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Thomas doubled to right, Walker scored and Moreno scored, Thomas to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Fair odds
- NYY -106
- ARI +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −1 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +2 Elo | ARI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 41–3918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.