Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting2-4
- Deivi GarciaPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 3Pham singled to left, Carroll scored, Marte to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Carroll doubled to right, Perdomo scored and Peterson scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Fair odds
- ARI -110
- CHW +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.9 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +7 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Luis Patino (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +43 Elo | ARI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3040–39 | Road vs home | 30–4629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–0 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.