Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4
- Jordan LylesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tucker doubled to right, Alvarez scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7McCormick homered to left (418 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Isbel scored on France wild pitch.3–0
- 5Isbel scored on France wild pitch.3–0
- 5Witt Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Pratto scored, Garcia out at second, Isbel to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Melendez hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 67%
- Fair odds
- HOU -148
- KC +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.7 – 5.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −5 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 1.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +124 Elo | HOU 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3021–55 | Road vs home | 39–4020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 3–1 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.