Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kjerstad homered to left (337 feet).9–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 7Hays homered to left center (422 feet).8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 6Diaz homered to right (342 feet), Tucker scored.7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Henderson singled to right, Frazier scored on error, Henderson safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Tucker, McCann safe at third on error.7–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6McCann reached on bunt single to first, Mullins scored, Frazier to second.6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Bregman homered to left center (375 feet).5–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 3Hays homered to left (365 feet), Santander scored and O'Hearn scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Tucker homered to right center (393 feet), Altuve scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1O'Hearn homered to center (400 feet), Santander scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Fair odds
- HOU -102
- BAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.2 – 5.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −4 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +2 Elo | BAL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 1st of 3049–26 | Road vs home | 38–3819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.