Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Tristan GrayBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Mullins hit sacrifice fly to center, Rutschman scored.4–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 10Rutschman singled to center, Hicks scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 10H. Ramírez grounded out to pitcher, Margot scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Frazier doubled to left, Mateo scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Rutschman homered to center (401 feet).3–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Bethancourt homered to center (411 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 8Gray homered to center (415 feet).2–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Hays singled to left, O'Hearn scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1B. Lowe homered to right center (402 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Fair odds
- BAL -112
- TB +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +14 Elo | BAL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3042–33 | Road vs home | 44–306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 5–7 BAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.