Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Heston KjerstadBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kjerstad homered to right center (418 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 6H. Ramírez homered to left center (419 feet), Margot scored and Walls scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Margot doubled to right, J. Lowe scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5B. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Pinto scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Margot singled to left, Arozarena scored, Paredes to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4B. Lowe homered to center (405 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 47%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −20 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +18 Elo | TB 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–32 | Road vs home | 43–295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 4–6 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.