St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hays singled to left, Henderson scored and Rutschman scored, Santander to second.5–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 6Henderson homered to right center (422 feet).5–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 5Mullins homered to right center (370 feet), Henderson scored, O'Hearn scored and Mountcastle scored.5–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 5O'Hearn doubled to center, Rutschman scored, Henderson to third.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Burleson singled to center, Arenado scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Frazier singled to right, Hicks scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Walker singled to left, Arenado scored, Contreras to second.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Contreras reached on infield single to pitcher, Gorman scored, Arenado to second.3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Arenado singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Gorman to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Urías singled to center, Hicks scored, Frazier to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Hicks singled to center, Mullins scored on throwing error by third baseman Arenado, Hicks to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 63%
- Fair odds
- BAL -141
- STL +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 5.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | STL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +91 Elo | BAL 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–40 | Road vs home | 42–264th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.