St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RomPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Reds- Hunter RenfroeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nootbaar doubled to left, Walker scored.9–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Arenado singled to left, O'Neill scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 7Edman scored on Cruz wild pitch, O'Neill to third on wild pitch by Cruz.7–4
- 7Edman scored on Cruz wild pitch, O'Neill to third on wild pitch by Cruz.7–4
- 4Marte stole home, Steer stole second.6–4
- 4Marte stole home, Steer stole second.6–4
- 3Senzel homered to left center (408 feet).6–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 3Renfroe homered to left center (378 feet), Steer scored.6–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Baker doubled to left, Contreras scored, Goldschmidt scored and Arenado scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Contreras homered to left (440 feet), Goldschmidt scored and Arenado scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 58%
- Fair odds
- CIN -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 5.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +15 | STL: Drew Rom: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +57 Elo | CIN 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3030–39 | Road vs home | 35–3721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 3–4 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.