St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack ThompsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Reds- Harrison BaderBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 4Nootbaar doubled to left, Winn scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Contreras homered to center (411 feet), Arenado scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 2Bader singled to right, Lopez scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Lopez doubled to right, Stephenson scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Stephenson doubled to center, Senzel scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Contreras singled to left, Nootbaar scored, Gorman to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Fair odds
- CIN -115
- STL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.1 – 5.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −33 | STL: Zack Thompson: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 1.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +16 Elo | STL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–39 | Road vs home | 35–3821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 4–4 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.