St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Andrew KniznerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Votto homered to right center (437 feet).1–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 7Friedl homered to right (372 feet).1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Votto grounded out to shortstop, Bader scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Martini tripled to center, Steer scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Steer singled to left, Friedl scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Knizner singled to center, Arenado scored, O'Neill to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Benson homered to center (414 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3India homered to center (409 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 5.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | 0 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +34 Elo | CIN 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 35–3923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 5–4 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.