Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Raley homered to center (409 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Frazier grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Mullins scored, Westburg out at second, Hicks to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Henderson homered to right center (383 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Arozarena tripled to right, Díaz scored and B. Lowe scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3B. Lowe singled to right, Raley scored, Díaz to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2O'Hearn homered to right center (409 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +17 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 6th of 3040–32 | Road vs home | 43–284th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–6 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.