St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Richie PalaciosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RomPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Palacios homered to right (395 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 61%
- Fair odds
- BAL -139
- STL +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 5.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −10 | STL: Drew Rom: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +78 Elo | BAL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–41 | Road vs home | 43–274th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–1 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.