Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-3
- Tyler GlasnowPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Urías singled to right, Hicks scored, Mullins to second.0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Mullins singled to left, O'Hearn scored, Hicks to third.0–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 4Rutschman singled to right, Frazier scored, Henderson to third.0–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Henderson singled to right, Hicks scored, Frazier to third.0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Henderson homered to center (428 feet), Frazier scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Frazier singled to center, Urías scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1O'Hearn singled to left, Henderson scored, Rutschman to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 48%
- Fair odds
- BAL -108
- TB +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −3 | TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +16 Elo | TB 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3042–32 | Road vs home | 43–306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 5–6 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.