Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Royals- Nick LoftinBatting2-4
- Jordan LylesPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Abreu grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Altuve scored, Alvarez out at second, Bregman to third.7–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 9Alvarez walked, Maldonado scored, Bregman to second, Altuve to third.6–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 46–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 36–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 9Altuve singled to left, Meyers scored, Maldonado to second.5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Alvarez homered to right (390 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Meyers homered to center (419 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–1
- 3McCormick singled to center, Bregman scored, Alvarez to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3J. Abreu hit sacrifice fly to left, Altuve scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Waters hit sacrifice fly to right, Loftin scored, Porter to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 64%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.7 – 5.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −22 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +101 Elo | HOU 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3045–29 | Road vs home | 28–4629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–2 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.